Alumina operating capacity further rebounds; alumina prices may pull back amid loose supply [SMM Alumina Morning Comment]

SMM Alumina Morning Comment 6.13

Futures Market: Overnight, the most-traded alumina 2509 contract opened at 2,890 yuan/mt, with a high of 2,896 yuan/mt, a low of 2,833 yuan/mt, and closed at 2,837 yuan/mt, down 58 yuan/mt or 2.00%, with open interest at 310,000 lots.

Ore Market: As of June 12, the SMM Import Bauxite Index was reported at $74.35/mt, up $0.01/mt from the previous trading day; the SMM Guinea Bauxite CIF average price was reported at $74.5/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the SMM Australia Low-Temperature Bauxite CIF average price was reported at $70/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day; the SMM Australia High-Temperature Bauxite CIF average price was reported at $65/mt, unchanged from the previous trading day.

Industry News:

(1) According to SMM statistics on June 12, the total alumina inventory at domestic ports was 38,200 mt, down 18,800 mt from the previous week.

Basis Report: According to SMM data, on June 12, the SMM Alumina Index premium against the latest transaction price of the most-traded contract at 11:30 was 380.99 yuan/mt.

Warrant Report: On June 12, the total registered alumina warrants decreased by 1,201 mt from the previous trading day to 82,900 mt. The total registered alumina warrants in the Shandong region remained unchanged at 601 mt from the previous trading day, in the Henan region remained unchanged at 300 mt, in the Guangxi region remained unchanged at 3,001 mt, in the Gansu region remained unchanged at 0 mt, and in the Xinjiang region decreased by 1,201 mt from the previous trading day to 80,000 mt.

Overseas Market: As of June 12, 2025, the FOB Western Australia alumina price was $370/mt, with an ocean freight rate of $22.00/mt, and the USD/CNY selling rate was around 7.20. This price translates to approximately 3,269 yuan/mt for the external selling price at major domestic ports, which is 8.66 yuan/mt higher than the domestic alumina price, keeping the alumina import window closed.

Summary:

This week, the operating capacity of alumina increased by 1.74 million mt/year MoM to 89.01 million mt/year, and the availability of spot alumina was relatively looser compared to the previous period. This week, the total alumina inventory at aluminum smelters increased by 16,000 mt to 2.646 million mt. In the short term, the alumina fundamentals are expected to maintain a relatively loose pattern, and spot alumina prices are expected to pull back. Subsequent attention should be paid to changes in the capacity of domestic alumina enterprises and the supply of imported alumina.

[The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions. Clients should make cautious decisions and should not rely on this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are not related to SMM.]